"Simulations with red noise do lead to
hockey sticks. McIntyre and McKitrick’s criticism on the hockey stick
from 1998 is entirely valid on this particular point." - Hans von Storch, Ph.D. Climate Statistics Specialist
What is the ‘Hockey Stick’ Debate About? (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, April 4, 2005)
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (PDF) (National Academy of Sciences, 2006)
| QUOTE (National Academy of Sciences) |
Even
less confidence can be placed in the original conclusions by Mann et
al. (1999) that "the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the
warmest year, in at least a millennium" [...]
Prior to about
1600, ...periods of medieval warmth are seen in a number of diverse
records, including historical information from Europe and Asia; cave
deposits; marine and lake sediments; and ice cores from Greenland,
Ellesmere Island, Tibet, and the equatorial Andes. [...]
Using
proxies sensitive to hydrologic variables (including moisture-sensitive
trees...) to take advantage of observed correlations with surface
temperature could lead to problems [...]
For tree ring
chronologies, the process of removing biological trends from ringwidth
data potentially obscures information on long-term changes in climate.
[...]
Large-scale surface temperature reconstructions yield a
generally consistent picture of temperature trends during the preceding
millennium, including relatively warm conditions centered around A.D.
1000 (identified by some as the “Medieval Warm Period”) and a
relatively cold period (or “Little Ice Age”) centered around 1700. The
existence and extent of a Little Ice Age from roughly 1500 to 1850 is
supported by a wide variety of evidence including ice cores, tree
rings, borehole temperatures, glacier length records, and historical
documents. Evidence for regional warmth during medieval times can be
found in a diverse ...set of records including ice cores, tree rings,
marine sediments, and historical sources from Europe and Asia |
| QUOTE |
We
share the assessment of the NRC committee that the evidence for
unprecedented warming of a single decade or even a single year in times
prior to 1500, or so, is stretching the scientific evidence too far.
However, this was the key claim made in the contested 1998-nature and
1999-GRL-papers by Mann et al.
With respect to methods, the
committee is showing reservations concerning the methodology of Mann et
al.. The committee notes explicitly on pages 91 and 111 that the method
has no validation (CE) skill significantly different from zero. In the
past, however, it has always been claimed that the method has a
significant nonzero validation skill. Methods without a validation
skill are usually considered useless. [...]
Thus, the public perception that the hockeystick as truthfully describing the temperature history was definitely false.
We
find it disappointing that the method of Mann et al. was not
sufficiently described in the original publication, and thus not
peer-reviewed prior to publication, and that no serious efforts were
made to allow independent researchers to check the performance of the
methods and of the data used. |
Spin can’t hide the facts concerning the hockey stick (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick Ph.D. Economics, July 26, 2006)
Editorials:
The decay of the hockey stick (Hans von Storch, Eduardo Zorita, Climate Feedback, Nature, May 03, 2007)
Congressional Hearings Break 'Hockey Stick' (H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, October 1, 2006)
Statisticians blast Hockey Stick (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, Canada, August 23, 2006)
Hockey sticks and hatchets (Financial Post, August 23, 2006)
Hockey Stick Hokum (The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2006)
See the Truth on climate history (Financial Post, Canada, July 12, 2006)
Misled again: The Hockey Stick climate (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, Canada, July 12, 2006)
Does the hockey stick "matter"? (Stephen McIntyre, Prometheus, November 14, 2005)
Why Does the Hockey Stick Debate Matter? (Ross McKitrick, Prometheus, November 14, 2005)
Re-visiting the Stick (Stephen McIntyre, National Post, June 17th, 2005)
Bring the Proxies Up to Date!! (Stephen McIntyre, February 20th, 2005)
In Climate Debate, The 'Hockey Stick' Leads to a Face-Off (The Wall Street Journal, February 20th, 2005)
Hockey Stick on Ice (The Wall Street Journal, February 18th, 2005)
Some Thoughts on Disclosure and Due Diligence in Climate Science (Stephen McIntyre, National Post, Canada, February 15th, 2005)
Global Warming Bombshell (MIT Technology Review, October 15, 2004)
Nature Admits Widely Cited Global Warming Graph Was Erroneous (The Hearland Institute, September 1, 2004)
The Broken Stick (Financial Post, Canada, July 13, 2004)
High-sticking the Senate (Patrick J. Michaels, The Heartland Institute, August 1, 2000)
Papers:
Ad Hoc Committee Report on the 'Hockey Stick' Global Climate Reconstruction (PDF) (Wegman Report, July 14th, 2006)
- Response
of Dr. Edward Wegman to Questions Posed by the Honorable Mr. Bart
Stupak in Connection with Testimony to the Subcommittee on Oversight
and Investigations (PDF)
Presentation
to the National Academy of Sciences Expert Panel, "Surface Temperature
Reconstructions for the Past 1,000-2,000 Years." (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, March 2, 2006)
- Supplementary Presentations to the National Academy of Sciences Panel (PDF) (April 3, 2006)
Presentation to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, July 19, 2006)
Presentation to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, July 27, 2006)
Huybers’ and von Storch-Zorita Comments, and Our Replies (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, November 2005)
More on Hockey Sticks: the Case of Jones et al (1998) (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Nov 14, 2005)
The Mann et al. Northern Hemisphere "Hockey Stick" Climate Index: A Tale of Due Diligence (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, May 2, 2005)
Is Climate Really Changing Adnormally? (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, April 1, 2005)
Kyoto Protocol Based On Flawed Statistics - Proof That Mankind Causes Global Warming Is Refuted (PDF) (Natuurwetenschap & Techniek, The Netherlands, February 2005)
Backgrounder for McIntyre and McKitrick “Hockey Stick Project” (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, January 27 2005)
Breaking the “Hockey Stick” (PDF) (David R. Legates, Ph.D. Climatology, July 12, 2004)
The IPCC, the "Hockey Stick" Curve, and the Illusion of Experience (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, B.Sc. Mathematics, Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Economics, November 18, 2003)
Lessons & Limits of Climate History: Was the 20th Century Climate Unusual? (PDF) (Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Willie Soon, Ph.D., April 2003)
The 'Hockey Stick': A New Low in Climate Science (John L. Daly, B.Sc. Economics, November 12, 2000)
Peer-Reviewed Papers:
Bias and Concealment in the IPCC Process: The "Hockey-Stick" Affair and Its Implications (PDF) (David Holland, Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 951-983, December 2007)
Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, February 2005)
- Reply to comment by von Storch and Zorita on "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, October 2005)
- Reply to comment by Huybers on "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, October 2005)
The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 1, pp. 69-100, January 2005)
Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series (PDF) (Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick, Energy & Environment, Volume 14, Number 6, pp. 751-771, November 2003)
Resources:
Climate Audit, Hockey Stick Studies
Ross McKitrick, Annotated Index to My Publications and Papers
The M&M Project: Replication Analysis of the Mann et al. Hockey Stick
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